Updating a
previous post, the AFC is a lot more cut & dried than the NFC. This wasn't true before this last week, but the way the games played out, the only things left to be determined are the last two playoff teams, and where they will play.
All 4 divisions are already clinched, and the Colts have locked-up the #1 seed. This also means that the Chargers will be the #2 seed, since they are 2 games ahead of both the other two division winners, the Patriots & Bengals. Patriots & Bengals will each host next weekend's two AFC wild-card games.
There are still 5, yes FIVE teams at 8-7, and all are fighting for those last two playoff spots (Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, and Steelers). Even 2 of the 3 teams who are 7-8 still have a very miniscule chance to grab one of those spots. They are the Dolphins and Jaguars. But if the Jets beat the Bengals Sunday, they solidify one of those spots. The Ravens can do the same thing if they also win at Oakland. Beyond that it gets a little more complicated. Here's why:
It suffices to say that a ton of different combinations of teams could grab these two spots, but Denver hosts the Chiefs. That says a lot right there, as does the Ravens going to Oakland, but that's why they play the games.
Denver needs a win and
either the Jets and Ravens to lose,
the Jets and one of either the Steelers or Texans to lose,
or the Ravens and Texans or Steelers to lose.
or if four of Pit, Bal, Hou, Jax, Mia, or NYJ loses.
That is actually a lot more possible for Denver to get in than it looks like.
Steelers & Texans need a lot more help, remember they've still gotta WIN first: Steelers play Dolphins Sunday, but both the Jets and Texans must lose! Oh and Houston hosts the Patriots. Hence the importance of that Bengals/Jets game!
That's as far as I'm going.. Dolphins & Jaguars both need a win and 4 teams all to lose.
Much of this isn't going to matter. I like the Pats winning their wild-card game against anyone unless it's the Steelers. It's the team that wins their game Sunday AND draws the "honor" to go to Cincinnati next weekend. The Bengals are good on both sides of the ball, but have shown vulnerability lately. Don't be surprised to see either the Ravens or Broncos go into Cincinnati and win. The Jets? Ehh, they have the easiest route to the playoffs of all these fighting for those two spots, and they're the team I'm the least sold on. Mark Sanchez is going to be good - very good. But I don't trust him any further than I can throw a piano right now. Will they win Sunday? I say probably not! Cin 24 NYJ 13
Steelers ruin Denver's parade: Pit 20 Mia 17
Here are my AFC Super Bowl Odds:
Colts - 5:2
Chargers - 3:1
Patriots - 7:1
Ravens - 15:1
Steelers - 16:1
Bengals - 20:1
Broncos, Jets - 25:1
Texans, Dolphins - 50:1
Jaguars - 300:1
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