NBA 2011: Here's What Remains

The NBA playoffs are right around the corner - Action begins Saturday, April 16. A lot has already been determined regarding seeds, and a lot remains to be decided. For this post my focus is going to be on the Western Conference. Will there be an Eastern Conference Post? Probably not.

Onward!

San Antonio has clinched the #1 seed. The Lakers, Mavericks, and Thunder have clinched home court advantage in the first round (i.e. no worse than a 4-seed). OKC apparently owns the tiebreaker with Denver since I heard it announced following their win last night that they had clinched no worse than #4 - especially since these two play tomorrow night for the 4th time this season, and OKC up 2-1.

The rest is where it gets complicated. Denver has a strong grip on the 5-seed, barring worse than a 2-2 finish in their last 4. This is a good time to visualize what's left:


Click to enlarge!

Obviously with Portland, New Orleans, and Memphis within a game and a half of each other, a lot can happen. But Memphis can take a lot of fate into their own hands since they still get to play both Portland and New Orleans. Not only that but New Orleans has to go to Dallas, and Portland has one more game against the Lakers.

Chances are the Spurs/Lakers game next Tuesday will be a bench-fest. I fully expect Popovich to start resting starters, and giving the bench some experience. Yeah the franchise best record of 63-19 is within reach, but after that stupid 6-game losing streak, it cannot be broken - only tied. Steve Novak, Danny Green, and Da'Sean Butler need time!

I also expect the Lakers to begin resting people. They have hobbled off the court this week - trying to catch the Spurs - and lost. Denver is the only other team who I think might take it a little easy over this next week - since they're fairly settled into the 5-seed. Everyone else will be going all-out! And it's gonna be great!

The Lakers probably don't want to face Portland. So I expect them to take it easy against them, and if they lose - that's one more step towards avoiding them. But it's conceivable that Dallas could still overtake LA for that #2 seed with only 2 games separating the two. I actually think Memphis has an easier final 4 games than New Orleans - which means I expect them to vault into the #7 spot or even the #6 spot - depending a lot on today's game between LA and Portland.

As a Spurs fan, all three of these teams in the 6-8 spots beat us twice, (Portland 2-1, Memphis 2-2, and NO 2-2), but the Hornets, having lost David West for the season, prove to be our best first round match-up.

We shall see what happens! Pay attention!

NFL Week 17 -- AFC

Updating a previous post, the AFC is a lot more cut & dried than the NFC. This wasn't true before this last week, but the way the games played out, the only things left to be determined are the last two playoff teams, and where they will play.

All 4 divisions are already clinched, and the Colts have locked-up the #1 seed. This also means that the Chargers will be the #2 seed, since they are 2 games ahead of both the other two division winners, the Patriots & Bengals. Patriots & Bengals will each host next weekend's two AFC wild-card games.

There are still 5, yes FIVE teams at 8-7, and all are fighting for those last two playoff spots (Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, and Steelers). Even 2 of the 3 teams who are 7-8 still have a very miniscule chance to grab one of those spots. They are the Dolphins and Jaguars. But if the Jets beat the Bengals Sunday, they solidify one of those spots. The Ravens can do the same thing if they also win at Oakland. Beyond that it gets a little more complicated. Here's why:

It suffices to say that a ton of different combinations of teams could grab these two spots, but Denver hosts the Chiefs. That says a lot right there, as does the Ravens going to Oakland, but that's why they play the games.

Denver needs a win and

either the Jets and Ravens to lose,

the Jets and one of either the Steelers or Texans to lose,

or the Ravens and Texans or Steelers to lose.

or if four of Pit, Bal, Hou, Jax, Mia, or NYJ loses.

That is actually a lot more possible for Denver to get in than it looks like.

Steelers & Texans need a lot more help, remember they've still gotta WIN first: Steelers play Dolphins Sunday, but both the Jets and Texans must lose! Oh and Houston hosts the Patriots. Hence the importance of that Bengals/Jets game!

That's as far as I'm going.. Dolphins & Jaguars both need a win and 4 teams all to lose.

Much of this isn't going to matter. I like the Pats winning their wild-card game against anyone unless it's the Steelers. It's the team that wins their game Sunday AND draws the "honor" to go to Cincinnati next weekend. The Bengals are good on both sides of the ball, but have shown vulnerability lately. Don't be surprised to see either the Ravens or Broncos go into Cincinnati and win. The Jets? Ehh, they have the easiest route to the playoffs of all these fighting for those two spots, and they're the team I'm the least sold on. Mark Sanchez is going to be good - very good. But I don't trust him any further than I can throw a piano right now. Will they win Sunday? I say probably not! Cin 24 NYJ 13

Steelers ruin Denver's parade: Pit 20 Mia 17

Here are my AFC Super Bowl Odds:
Colts - 5:2
Chargers - 3:1
Patriots - 7:1
Ravens - 15:1
Steelers - 16:1
Bengals - 20:1
Broncos, Jets - 25:1
Texans, Dolphins - 50:1
Jaguars - 300:1

NFL Week 17 -- NFC

Wow. I love the last week of the regular season in the NFL.

95% of all your "fantasy football" involvement is now gone, and playoff scenarios are getting cut down to about 1/3 after everyone plays a game. And yet this season, there's still tons of things that can happen. Well, in the NFC, anyway.


I won't bore everyone with that crazy total scenario monologue that you hear a little too much, but it's incredibly crazy in the NFC with a week to go, though... and here's why:

Dallas and Philadelphia have both locked-up a playoff birth. But they just happen to play each other in the final week - for the NFC EAST division championship, and at worst a home playoff game... but better yet, each team is also gonna be motivated by the fact that a Minnesota loss gives us a chance at a first-round bye! But of course we gotta win! And a few more chances for something else to happen. But,

The winner is very likely to host the 6-seed in a wildcard game... which just happens to be each other. Oh yeah, and both have as good a chance as any NFC team of going as far as anyone.

DAL 26-17

Almost..

No one takes more advantage of his post-game press-conferences like Brett Favre. Right? Does anyone else go that deep into his thought process? Kurt Warner, maybe, but hey.. don't they get tired?

They.. the Vikings.. have lost 3 of 4 now, and will limp into the playoffs whether or not they win next week, really. But no doubt they'd much rather play at home - in da dome? But we get the Giants? Damn.. I haven't picked this game yet, but nothing would make these G-Men happier at this point.

Packers/Cardinals are both playing very well at the moment, but it could always change. Don't forget Kurt Warner's most important statistic. The Cardinals have at least won three of their last 5, after an eerily similar start as Minnesota. But haven't won more than 3-striaght all season. A season which has been very similar to their last, in which we saw them win those three straight at JUST the right time, en route to the Big Game. I don't think anyone would look forward to playing the Packers, either. But having lost twice in 5-weeks to the Vikings, at least they can hope to avoid them, which is very possible.

GB 34 Arz 27

Wait, the other team is the New Orleans Saints. Having already gotten to the 13-0 mark, I think they realized just what they had achieved, and also know exactly what they are doing. Of course, they'd like to have won the last two. But they knew this 2 weeks ago. Maybe a "get it out of your system now" or "these 3 games are meaningless" mind-set. Even Carolina is gonna be a tough win next Sunday, but Saints go into the playoffs with the best, most complete team. Sunday will be a huge key to how this NFC will unfold. But I think this is the team to beat.

Super Bowl Odds after NFL week-16:
Saints - 5:1
Eagles - 7:1
Cowboys - 15:2
Cardinals - 12:1
Vikings - 13:1
Packers - 16:1

I will be updating this! And will also be back for the AFC.